Mathematical models to predict kinetic behavior and growth probabilities of listeria monocytogenes on pork skin at constant and dynamic temperatures

dc.contributor.author	Lee, S	en
dc.contributor.author	Lee, H	en
dc.contributor.author	Lee, J-Y	en
dc.contributor.author	Skandamis, P	en
dc.contributor.author	Park, B-Y	en
dc.contributor.author	Oh, M-H	en
dc.contributor.author	Yoon, Y	en
dc.date.accessioned	2014-06-06T06:52:41Z
dc.date.available	2014-06-06T06:52:41Z
dc.date.issued	2013	en
dc.identifier.issn	0362028X	en
dc.identifier.uri	http://dx.doi.org/10.4315/0362-028X.JFP-13-197	en
dc.identifier.uri	http://62.217.125.90/xmlui/handle/123456789/6120
dc.subject.other	animal	en
dc.subject.other	article	en
dc.subject.other	bacterial count	en
dc.subject.other	biological model	en
dc.subject.other	food control	en
dc.subject.other	growth, development and aging	en
dc.subject.other	human	en
dc.subject.other	kinetics	en
dc.subject.other	Listeria monocytogenes	en
dc.subject.other	mathematics	en
dc.subject.other	meat	en
dc.subject.other	microbiology	en
dc.subject.other	probability	en
dc.subject.other	swine	en
dc.subject.other	temperature	en
dc.subject.other	Animals	en
dc.subject.other	Colony Count, Microbial	en
dc.subject.other	Food Microbiology	en
dc.subject.other	Humans	en
dc.subject.other	Kinetics	en
dc.subject.other	Listeria monocytogenes	en
dc.subject.other	Mathematics	en
dc.subject.other	Meat	en
dc.subject.other	Models, Biological	en
dc.subject.other	Probability	en
dc.subject.other	Swine	en
dc.subject.other	Temperature	en
dc.title	Mathematical models to predict kinetic behavior and growth probabilities of listeria monocytogenes on pork skin at constant and dynamic temperatures	en
heal.type	journalArticle	en
heal.identifier.primary	10.4315/0362-028X.JFP-13-197	en
heal.publicationDate	2013	en
heal.abstract	In this study, mathematical models were developed to predict the growth probability and kinetic behavior of Listeria monocytogenes on fresh pork skin during storage at different temperatures. A 10-strain mixture of L. monocytogenes was inoculated on fresh pork skin (3 by 5 cm) at 4 log CFU/cm 2. The inoculated samples were stored aerobically at 4, 7, and 10°C for 240 h, at 15 and 20°C for 96 h, and at 25 and 30°C for 12 h. The Baranyi model was fitted to L. monocytogenes growth data on PALCAM agar to calculate the maximum specific growth rate, lag-phase duration, the lower asymptote, and the upper asymptote. The kinetic parameters were then further analyzed as a function of storage temperature. The model simulated growth of L. monocytogenes under constant and changing temperatures, and the performances of the models were evaluated by the root mean square error and bias factor (B f). Of the 49 combinations (temperature \| sampling time), the combinations with significant growth (P <, 0.05) of L. monocytogenes were assigned a value of 1, and the combinations with nonsignificant growth (P ≥ 0.05) were given a value of 0. These data were analyzed by logistic regression to develop a model predicting the probabilities of L. monocytogenes growth. At 4 to 10°C, obvious L. monocytogenes growth was observable after 24 h of storage; but, at other temperatures, the pathogen had obvious growth after 12 h of storage. Because the root mean square error value (0.184) and Bf (1.01) were close to 0 and 1, respectively, the performance of the developed model was acceptable, and the probabilistic model also showed good performance. These results indicate that the developed model should be useful in predicting kinetic behavior and calculating growth probabilities of L. monocytogenes as a function of temperature and time. © International Association for Food Protection.	en
heal.journalName	Journal of Food Protection	en
dc.identifier.issue	11	en
dc.identifier.volume	76	en
dc.identifier.doi	10.4315/0362-028X.JFP-13-197	en
dc.identifier.spage	1868	en
dc.identifier.epage	1872	en