Probabilistic model for Listeria monocytogenes growth during distribution, retail storage, and domestic storage of pasteurized milk

dc.contributor.author	Koutsoumanis, K	en
dc.contributor.author	Pavlis, A	en
dc.contributor.author	Nychas, G-JE	en
dc.contributor.author	Xanthiakos, K	en
dc.date.accessioned	2014-06-06T06:50:39Z
dc.date.available	2014-06-06T06:50:39Z
dc.date.issued	2010	en
dc.identifier.issn	00992240	en
dc.identifier.uri	http://dx.doi.org/10.1128/AEM.02430-09	en
dc.identifier.uri	http://62.217.125.90/xmlui/handle/123456789/5106
dc.subject.other	[A] Growth models	en
dc.subject.other	Chain condition	en
dc.subject.other	Consumer exposure	en
dc.subject.other	Domestic refrigerators	en
dc.subject.other	EU regulations	en
dc.subject.other	Importance analysis	en
dc.subject.other	Listeria monocytogenes	en
dc.subject.other	Mean temperature	en
dc.subject.other	Monocytogenes	en
dc.subject.other	Monte Carlo Simulation	en
dc.subject.other	Pasteurized milk	en
dc.subject.other	Probabilistic models	en
dc.subject.other	Rank order	en
dc.subject.other	Safety criterion	en
dc.subject.other	Shelf life	en
dc.subject.other	Storage and handling	en
dc.subject.other	Strain variability	en
dc.subject.other	Time-temperature conditions	en
dc.subject.other	Computer simulation	en
dc.subject.other	Doors	en
dc.subject.other	Listeria	en
dc.subject.other	Monte Carlo methods	en
dc.subject.other	Refrigerators	en
dc.subject.other	Sales	en
dc.subject.other	Surveys	en
dc.subject.other	Probability distributions	en
dc.subject.other	bacterium	en
dc.subject.other	European Union	en
dc.subject.other	food storage	en
dc.subject.other	microbial activity	en
dc.subject.other	milk	en
dc.subject.other	model test	en
dc.subject.other	Monte Carlo analysis	en
dc.subject.other	pathogen	en
dc.subject.other	probability	en
dc.subject.other	temperature effect	en
dc.subject.other	transportation system	en
dc.subject.other	animal	en
dc.subject.other	article	en
dc.subject.other	bacterial count	en
dc.subject.other	food handling	en
dc.subject.other	Greece	en
dc.subject.other	isolation and purification	en
dc.subject.other	Listeria monocytogenes	en
dc.subject.other	microbial viability	en
dc.subject.other	microbiology	en
dc.subject.other	milk	en
dc.subject.other	statistical model	en
dc.subject.other	temperature	en
dc.subject.other	time	en
dc.subject.other	Animals	en
dc.subject.other	Colony Count, Microbial	en
dc.subject.other	Food Handling	en
dc.subject.other	Greece	en
dc.subject.other	Listeria monocytogenes	en
dc.subject.other	Microbial Viability	en
dc.subject.other	Milk	en
dc.subject.other	Models, Statistical	en
dc.subject.other	Temperature	en
dc.subject.other	Time Factors	en
dc.subject.other	Greece	en
dc.subject.other	Listeria monocytogenes	en
dc.title	Probabilistic model for Listeria monocytogenes growth during distribution, retail storage, and domestic storage of pasteurized milk	en
heal.type	journalArticle	en
heal.identifier.primary	10.1128/AEM.02430-09	en
heal.publicationDate	2010	en
heal.abstract	A survey on the time-temperature conditions of pasteurized milk in Greece during transportation to retail, retail storage, and domestic storage and handling was performed. The data derived from the survey were described with appropriate probability distributions and introduced into a growth model of Listeria monocytogenes in pasteurized milk which was appropriately modified for taking into account strain variability. Based on the above components, a probabilistic model was applied to evaluate the growth of L. monocytogenes during the chill chain of pasteurized milk using a Monte Carlo simulation. The model predicted that, in 44.8% of the milk cartons released in the market, the pathogen will grow until the time of consumption. For these products the estimated mean total growth of L. monocytogenes during transportation, retail storage, and domestic storage was 0.93 log CFU, with 95th and 99th percentiles of 2.68 and 4.01 log CFU, respectively. Although based on EU regulation 2073/2005 pasteurized milk produced in Greece belongs to the category of products that do not allow the growth of L. monocytogenes due to a shelf life (defined by law) of 5 days, the above results show that this shelf life limit cannot prevent L. monocytogenes from growing under the current chill chain conditions. The predicted percentage of milk cartons-initially contaminated with 1 cell/1-liter carton-In which the pathogen exceeds the safety criterion of 100 cells/ml at the time of consumption was 0.14%. The probabilistic model was used for an importance analysis of the chill chain factors, using rank order correlation, while selected intervention and shelf life increase scenarios were evaluated. The results showed that simple interventions, such as excluding the door shelf from the domestic storage of pasteurized milk, can effectively reduce the growth of the pathogen. The door shelf was found to be the warmest position in domestic refrigerators, and it was most frequently used by the consumers for domestic storage of pasteurized milk. Furthermore, the model predicted that a combination of this intervention with a decrease of the mean temperature of domestic refrigerators by 2°C may allow an extension of pasteurized milk shelf life from 5 to 7 days without affecting the current consumer exposure to L. monocytogenes. Copyright © American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.	en
heal.journalName	Applied and Environmental Microbiology	en
dc.identifier.issue	7	en
dc.identifier.volume	76	en
dc.identifier.doi	10.1128/AEM.02430-09	en
dc.identifier.spage	2181	en
dc.identifier.epage	2191	en